FORECASTING RICE PRODUCTION RESULT IN CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE USING THE HYBRID SARIMA-FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN METHOD

Rice production is an agricultural product that involves planting, maintaining and fertilizing rice seeds regularly to produce high quality rice. The development of rice production from 2019-2022 continues to decline, rice production in 2022 is 779,704 tonnes lower than in 2021 and in 2020 it produced 790,764 tonnes lower than in 2019. This research aims to estimate rice production in Central Java Province with more accurate values. To produce forecasting values with good and precise accuracy using the Hybrid SARIMA-Fuzzy Time Series Chen method, after obtaining the SARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12 model then correct the error values using Fuzzy Time Series Chen. The research results show that using the Hybrid SARIMA-Fuzzy Time Series method Chen predicted rice production in January 2023 of 2,748,501 tons with an MSE of 0.0000001. By having more accurate estimates, the government and other stakeholders can better anticipate fluctuations in rice production in the future, especially in situations where
production is predicted to fall.